The need for a manufacturing policy, reining in food inflation and raising investment in the country were among key suggestions given by economists who met Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and senior ministry officials in the first round of pre-Budget consultations on Friday.
Plans for big bang reforms in the GST regime by Diwali, the Putin-Trump summit and S&P upgrading India's sovereign credit rating are likely to instil optimism in the domestic equity market in the week ahead, analysts said. Besides, trends in global markets and the trading activity of foreign investors would also impact domestic investors' sentiment.
K Krithivasan, the chief executive and managing director of India's largest IT services company TCS, took home a remuneration of Rs 26.52 crore in FY25.
'Any finality in such matters requires political views. We will review it closer to the full Budget.'
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her 8th straight Budget and all eyes will be on the much-expected tax relief for the middle class. Sitharaman had in her first Budget in 2019 replaced the leather briefcase -- which had been in use for decades for carrying Budget documents -- with a traditional 'bahi-khata' wrapped in red cloth.
"We are contributing about 18 per cent, which is more than the US where the contribution is expected to be much less -- about 11 per cent or something. We are doing very well and we will continue to improve further," RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra said, replying to a question on Trump's recent comments.
In trade negotiations, as in chess, sometimes you need to accept a temporary disadvantage to secure a better long-term position, points out Sonal Varma, chief economist (India and Asia ex-Japan) at Nomura.
To those who ask, "Is all this really worth it? Why can't domestic demand fill the gap?", it is important to remind them that only 13 economies since the Second World War have grown at 7 per cent or more for 25 years -- like India needs to. They all had one thing in common: Strong export growth underpinned by strong global engagement, explains Sajjid Z Chinoy.
Since items in the 12% category account for only about 5% of total GST, the additional boost to consumption may not be significant, points out M Govinda Rao.
The World Bank on Wednesday lowered India's growth forecast for the current fiscal by 4 percentage points to 6.3 per cent amid global economic weakness and policy uncertainty. In its previous estimate, the World Bank had projected India's growth at 6.7 per cent for the fiscal year 2025-26.
Global rating agency Fitch on Thursday affirmed India's 'BBB-' rating with a stable outlook on strong growth outlook and fiscal credibility. Fitch said India is set to remain among the fastest-growing sovereigns globally with GDP growth of 7.2 per cent in the current fiscal year and 6.5 per cent in FY26, down from 8.2 per cent in FY24. "Fitch Ratings has affirmed India's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-' with a Stable Outlook," the global rating agency said in a statement.
The government in FY26 Budget should announce an "effective" personal income tax cut to support consumption and demand, Barclays said on Thursday. In its FY25-26 Union Budget preview, Barclays said the key ask from the Budget, to be presented on February 1, is to support growth while adhering to fiscal consolidation path.
'The finance minister missed yet another opportunity to simplify the income tax structure in the Budget.' 'This was an opportune moment to get rid of the old tax system entirely and move fully to the new system,' asserts M Govinda Rao, member of the 14th Finance Commission.
Among Sensex firms, Eternal, Infosys, Asian Paints, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finserv and Titan were the major gainers. However, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Adani Ports and Bharat Electronics were among the laggards.
Education loan growth is set to halve this fiscal (FY26) because disbursements for the US decelerate following a raft of policy changes there.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday upped India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent, citing lower crude prices, monetary easing and normal monsoon, and said the ongoing geopolitical tensions are unlikely to put a "significant pressure" on the rupee or inflation.
Moody's Ratings on Wednesday said India's economic growth will exceed 6.5 per cent in the next fiscal, up from 6.3 per cent this year, on higher government capex and consumption boost from tax cuts and interest rate reduction. Projecting a stable outlook for the banking sector, Moody's said although the operating environment of Indian banks will remain favourable in the next fiscal, their asset quality will deteriorate moderately after substantial improvements in recent years, with some stress in unsecured retail loans, microfinance loans and small business loans.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut India's GDP growth estimate by 10 basis points to 6.4 per cent for the current fiscal, but retained the projections for the next financial year, on concerns over a 'severe' escalation in global trade war. "It is hard to predict US trade policy with any confidence. Massive policy uncertainty is hurting business investment prospects, equity price falls are reducing household wealth, and US exporters will be hit by retaliation," Fitch said in its special update to quarterly Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
India's annual oil import bill could rise by $9-11 billion if the country is compelled to move away from Russian crude in response to US threats of additional tariffs or penalties on Indian exports, analysts said. India, the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer, has reaped significant benefits by swiftly substituting market-priced oil with discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Since February 2025, the RBI has reduced the policy rate by 100 basis points. In its previous policy review in April, it had also trimmed the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 per cent.
The US' move to raise the tariff on most Indian goods to 50 per cent could drag India's GDP growth for FY26 by 35 to 60 basis points, according to various economists. One basis point (bp) is equal to 0.01 per cent.
Passenger vehicle dispatches in India from factories to dealers rose to record levels at over 43 lakh units in FY25, with utility vehicles accounting for 65 per cent of the total sales in the segment, industry body SIAM said on Tuesday. Passenger vehicle (PV) dispatches rose to 43,01,848 units in the last fiscal year, marking a 2 per cent increase compared to 42,18,750 units in FY 2023-24.
'Deposit and lending rates have started to fall considerably. It is likely to spur investment and consumption of durables.'
State-owned insurer Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) on Tuesday posted a 38 per cent increase in net profit to Rs 19,013 crore in the fourth quarter ended March 2025 helped by lower expenses. The country's biggest insurer had earned a profit of Rs 13,763 crore in the corresponding quarter a year earlier.
India had vehemently opposed Asian Development Bank's decision to grant $800 million loan to Pakistan saying the fund could be misused for increasing expenditure on its military, government sources said.
India will be the world's third-largest economy by 2028 as it becomes the world's most sought-after consumer market and gains share in global output, driven by macro stability influenced policy and better infrastructure, Morgan Stanley said. From a $3.5 trillion economy in 2023, the Indian economy is projected to expand to $4.7 trillion in 2026, which will make it the fourth largest in the world behind the US, China and Germany.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the tenth time in a row but changed its stance to 'neutral' that may lead to a cut in the forthcoming policies. RBI maintained status quo despite the US Federal Reserve lowering the benchmark rates by 50 basis points last month.
Simplifying GST rates, removing exemptions, easing disputes, and speeding up refunds can boost investment in India and offer the best reply to Trump's tariffs, observes V S Krishnan, former member, Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data announcements and global trends are the key factors that would dictate the momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said.
The RBI on Wednesday slashed key interest rate by 25 basis points, for the second time in a row, to support a shuttering economy hit by reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US. Following the rate cut, the key policy rate eased to 6 per cent providing relief to home, auto and corporate loan borrowers.
India's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised downward to 6.3 per cent, and despite a projected moderation, the country remains one of the fastest-growing large economies, supported by resilient consumption and government spending, the United Nations has said.
Wholesale price inflation dropped to 0.85 per cent in April as prices of food articles, manufactured products, and fuel eased, government data showed on Wednesday. WPI-based inflation was 2.05 per cent in March. It was 1.19 per cent in April last year.
The Indian economy is projected to grow at 6.2 per cent in 2025-26, slower than earlier estimated rate of 6.5 per cent, due to escalated trade tensions and global uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. "For India, the growth outlook is relatively more stable at 6.2 per cent in 2025, supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas," IMF said in its World Economic Outlook (WEO).
President Droupadi Murmu addressed the nation on the eve of Independence Day, praising the response to terrorism, highlighting achievements in defense self-reliance, and emphasizing unity and progress.
The Trump trade shock is a chance to push long-overdue reforms, rather than tinker with tariffs to appease the US, suggests M Govinda Rao.
The highlights of RBI's bi-monthly monetary policy announced by Governor Shaktikanta Das:
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday said the hostilities between India and Pakistan heighten risks to the credit metrics of both countries, and any escalation in clashes would put downward pressure on sovereign credit support.
It will be the second Budget of the Modi 3.0 government and eighth straight Budget for Nirmala Sitharaman, rare in Indian polity.
Wholesale price inflation (WPI) declined to a 14-month low of 0.39 per cent in May on easing prices of food articles and fuel, and experts said geopolitical tensions could push up prices.
President Droupadi Murmu's address to the nation on the eve of the 79th Independence Day.
